Central Asia s Vast Biofuel Opportunity

The current revelations of a International Energy Administration whistleblower that the IEA may have distorted key oil forecasts under extreme U.S. pressure is, if true (and whistleblowers seldom come forward to advance their careers), a slow-burning thermonuclear surge on future global oil production. The Bush administration's actions in pressing the IEA to underplay the rate of decrease from existing oil fields while overplaying the opportunities of finding new reserves have the prospective to toss federal governments' long-lasting planning into mayhem.


Whatever the truth, rising long term global needs appear certain to overtake production in the next years, particularly given the high and rising expenses of establishing brand-new super-fields such as Kazakhstan's overseas Kashagan and Brazil's southern Atlantic Jupiter and Carioca fields, which will require billions in investments before their very first barrels of oil are produced.


In such a circumstance, additives and replacements such as biofuels will play an ever-increasing function by stretching beleaguered production quotas. As market forces and increasing rates drive this technology to the leading edge, one of the richest prospective production areas has actually been totally ignored by investors already - Central Asia. Formerly the USSR's cotton "plantation," the region is poised to become a significant gamer in the production of biofuels if sufficient foreign investment can be procured. Unlike Brazil, where biofuel is manufactured largely from sugarcane, or the United States, where it is primarily distilled from corn, Central Asia's ace resource is a native plant, Camelina sativa.


Of the previous Soviet Caucasian and Central Asian republics, those clustered around the shores of the Caspian, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have seen their economies boom due to the fact that of record-high energy prices, while Turkmenistan is waiting in the wings as an increasing manufacturer of natural gas.


Farther to the east, in Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, geographical isolation and reasonably little hydrocarbon resources relative to their Western Caspian neighbors have actually largely inhibited their capability to money in on increasing global energy needs already. Mountainous Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan stay mainly dependent for their electrical needs on their Soviet-era hydroelectric facilities, but their increased requirement to generate winter season electrical power has resulted in autumnal and winter water discharges, in turn seriously impacting the farming of their western downstream next-door neighbors Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.


What these 3 downstream countries do have nevertheless is a Soviet-era legacy of farming production, which in Uzbekistan's and Turkmenistan case was mostly towards cotton production, while Kazakhstan, beginning in the 1950s with Khrushchev's "Virgin Lands" programs, has ended up being a major manufacturer of wheat. Based on my conversations with Central Asian government authorities, offered the thirsty demands of cotton monoculture, foreign propositions to diversify agrarian production towards biofuel would have fantastic appeal in Astana, Ashgabat and Tashkent and to a lesser extent Astana for those sturdy investors going to bank on the future, particularly as a plant indigenous to the area has currently proven itself in trials.


Known in the West as false flax, wild flax, linseed dodder, German sesame and Siberian oilseed, camelina is drawing in increased scientific interest for its oleaginous qualities, with several European and American companies already investigating how to produce it in business amounts for biofuel. In January Japan Airlines carried out a historic test flight utilizing camelina-based bio-jet fuel, ending up being the first Asian provider to explore flying on fuel stemmed from sustainable feedstocks during a one-hour presentation flight from Tokyo's Haneda Airport. The test was the culmination of a 12-month assessment of camelina's functional efficiency ability and potential business viability.


As an alternative energy source, camelina has much to advise it. It has a high oil content low in hydrogenated fat. In contrast to Central Asia's thirsty "king cotton," camelina is drought-resistant and immune to spring freezing, requires less fertilizer and herbicides, and can be utilized as a rotation crop with wheat, which would make it of specific interest in Kazakhstan, now Central Asia's major wheat exporter. Another perk of camelina is its tolerance of poorer, less fertile conditions. An acre sown with camelina can produce approximately 100 gallons of oil and when planted in rotation with wheat, camelina can increase wheat production by 15 percent. A ton (1000 kg) of camelina will contain 350 kg of oil, of which pressing can draw out 250 kg. Nothing in camelina production is lost as after processing, the plant's particles can be used for animals silage. Camelina silage has an especially attractive concentration of omega-3 fats that make it an especially fine animals feed candidate that is recently getting acknowledgment in the U.S. and Canada. Camelina is fast growing, produces its own natural herbicide (allelopathy) and completes well against weeds when an even crop is established. According to Britain's Bangor University's Centre for Alternative Land Use, "Camelina could be a perfect low-input crop ideal for bio-diesel production, due to its lower requirements for nitrogen fertilizer than oilseed rape."


Camelina, a branch of the mustard family, is indigenous to both Europe and Central Asia and barely a brand-new crop on the scene: historical proof shows it has actually been cultivated in Europe for a minimum of three centuries to produce both veggie oil and animal fodder.


Field trials of production in Montana, presently the center of U.S. camelina research, revealed a large range of outcomes of 330-1,700 lbs of seed per acre, with oil material differing in between 29 and 40%. Optimal seeding rates have actually been identified to be in the 6-8 pound per acre range, as the seeds' small size of 400,000 seeds per pound can develop issues in germination to accomplish an ideal plant density of around 9 plants per sq. ft.


Camelina's capacity could permit Uzbekistan to start breaking out of its most dolorous tradition, the imposition of a cotton monoculture that has warped the nation's attempts at agrarian reform because accomplishing independence in 1991. Beginning in the late 19th century, the Russian government figured out that Central Asia would become its cotton plantation to feed Moscow's growing textile market. The procedure was sped up under the Soviets. While Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan were likewise ordered by Moscow to plant cotton, Uzbekistan in specific was singled out to produce "white gold."


By the end of the 1930s the Soviet Union had actually ended up being self-sufficient in cotton; 5 decades later it had actually become a major exporter of cotton, producing more than one-fifth of the world's production, focused in Uzbekistan, which produced 70 percent of the Soviet Union's output.


Try as it may to diversify, in the absence of alternatives Tashkent stays wedded to cotton, producing about 3.6 million heaps yearly, which brings in more than $1 billion while making up approximately 60 percent of the country's tough currency income.


Beginning in the mid-1960s the Soviet government's regulations for Central Asian cotton production mainly bankrupted the region's scarcest resource, water. Cotton uses about 3.5 acre feet of water per acre of plants, leading Soviet coordinators to divert ever-increasing volumes of water from the area's 2 primary rivers, the Amu Darya and Syr Darya, into ineffective irrigation canals, leading to the remarkable shrinkage of the rivers' final destination, the Aral Sea. The Aral, when the world's fourth-largest inland sea with an area of 26,000 square miles, has actually shrunk to one-quarter its original size in among the 20th century's worst ecological disasters.


And now, the dollars and cents. Dr. Bill Schillinger at Washington State University recently described camelina's business design to Capital Press as: "At 1,400 pounds per acre at 16 cents a pound, camelina would bring in $224 per acre; 28-bushel white wheat at $8.23 per bushel would amass $230."


Central Asia has the land, the farms, the irrigation facilities and a modest wage scale in comparison to America or Europe - all that's missing out on is the foreign financial investment. U.S. financiers have the money and access to the know-how of America's land grant universities. What is specific is that biofuel's market share will grow with time; less particular is who will profit of establishing it as a feasible issue in Central Asia.


If the recent past is anything to go by it is unlikely to be American and European investors, fixated as they are on Caspian oil and gas.


But while the Japanese flight experiments indicate Asian interest, American financiers have the scholastic know-how, if they are prepared to follow the Silk Road into establishing a brand-new market. Certainly anything that lessens water use and pesticides, diversifies crop production and improves the lot of their agrarian population will receive most mindful factor to consider from Central Asia's federal governments, and farming and veggie oil processing plants are not just much more affordable than pipelines, they can be built quicker.


And jatropha's biofuel capacity? Another story for another time.