Our Brand-new Deepseek-based AI Says
Our new Deepseek-based AI states "Chiefs vs Eagles? ... How Predictable"
Super Bowl predictions from our new Deepseek-based AI trained to be better at forecasting
Share this post
No one can predict the future but at Lightning arrester Labs we are training AI to give it its best shot. With up to date news and a little but spirited 14 Billion specification model, our AI is boldly anticipating the unforeseeable. Join us as we attempt to address humanity's most difficult concerns.
Super Bowl Sunday is almost upon us and, just as two years ago, we have the Chiefs against the Eagles. The spread currently sits at Chiefs -1.5 with an over-under of 48.5. While the stats are well studied, there remain lots of pushing questions that are less simple to determine. Our company, Lightning arrester Labs, has actually been mining concerns from places like polymarket.com and training a large language model to be much better at predicting the future (and have actually seen some appealing enhancements - term paper inbound). This week we turned its cold, determining eye at the Super Bowl to see if it can give us some insight into the finer points of what we can expect this Sunday.
For more updates from the AI world register for my newsletter!
Background
Our AI is a 14 billion criterion model which is actually on the smaller sized side. (Some price quotes suggest ChatGPT has 1.8 TRILLION criteria and trained using 8000 H100 GPUs. We utilized 8.) Additionally, its knowledge cutoff is from lots of months earlier so we have actually constructed an "agentic pipeline" to do news retrieval, summarization, and ranking. With each question we supply the news and watch as the AI reasons its method through unidentified territory to make its best forecast possible.
And Now ... The Important Questions
We posed the following questions to our AI and determined its reaction. While we have actually seen prediction improvements from our training, use these estimates for prop betting at your own hazard.
Will Travis Kelce propose to Taylor Swift after the Super Bowl?
AI Final Prediction: 5% possibility
And so it appears this Sunday will not be a romantic one. Our AI thinks Taylor and Travis' relationship is rock solid, however a little too personal for a post-Super Bowl proposition. Plus got ta element in if the Chiefs lose. That would be an uncomfortable proposition ...
First, I'll look at the bottom lines from the posts. Travis has actually remained in a relationship with Taylor because 2023. He's a big football star, and she's been encouraging of his career, attending his video games. They seem to have a strong, public relationship, and Taylor has even welcomed her family and friends to the Super Bowl, revealing her commitment.
Some fans are thrilled, while others, especially Swifties, are a bit uncertain, especially offered comments Travis made about Donald Trump participating in the Super Bowl. That has triggered some Swifties to question how appropriate Travis is for Taylor. However, the couple appears to be keeping their relationship personal and not dealing with the speculation straight.
I believe the bottom lines are the speculation and his incredibly elusive answers. While he's plainly in a relationship and the Super Bowl is an essential event, the odds and his reactions suggest it's more of a possibility instead of a certainty. I 'd approximate a low likelihood, possibly around 5%, thinking about all factors.
Will the Eagles do more than 5 "tush-pushes" throughout the super bowl?
AI Final Prediction: 79% possibility
No Jason Kelce hasn't stopped the Eagles from using their signature "tush-push" move, now its simply a different front-tush being pushed. Will an AI understand what a "tush-push" is? Does an AI even know what a "tush" is? Will it factor in that the Chiefs stopped (debate aside) Josh Allen's similar attempts? Looks like our AI believes they'll be using Jalen Hurts 600-pound squat and strong legs and lower body (Does our AI have a crush on Jalen Hurts?) time and again during this game.
Alright, I'm trying to find out the possibility that the Eagles will do more than 5 "tush-pushes" throughout the Super Bowl. First, I need to comprehend just what a "tush-push" is. From the short articles, it looks like it's a strategy where the quarterback, in this case Jalen Hurts, uses his legs and lower body strength to push off defenders. It's compared to pressing a heavy box, so it's a physical maneuver that needs strength and strategy.
Article 3 dives into the physics of the "tush-push." It explains how Hurts uses his leg strength, having done a 600-pound squat, to carry out the move. The post mentions that the Eagles have a 90% success rate with this strategy, which is pretty high. ... I likewise need to consider the defensive methods of the Chiefs. If the Chiefs are mindful of the Eagles' "tush-push" technique, they might adjust their defense accordingly, which might either increase or decrease the number of times the Eagles use it.
Considering that more than five seems like a significant number but possible given their self-confidence, I would approximate a probability around 60-70% possibility. This accounts for their preparation, self-confidence in the technique, and the probability that they'll use it several times, particularly if it's effective early on.
Will Kendrick Lamar diss Donald Trump during the halftime program performance?
AI Final Prediction: 65% chance
While our AI might not resemble us when it pertains to awareness, a soul, or any physical manifestation, it certainly has viewpoints on Kendrick Lamar. It was quite uncertain, waffling backward and forward, but in the end it thinks Kendrick isn't going to pull back from a battle.
From the articles, I see that Kendrick Lamar has a history of criticizing Trump. He's done this in his songs, like "The Heart Part 4," and even made a statement during a previous halftime show when Trump was present in 2018. That seems substantial due to the fact that it shows he's done it in the past, so perhaps he'll do it again. But wait, looking at more recent posts, it points out that Lamar is moving far from political statements and focusing more on personal expression. That might indicate he's less most likely to address Trump this time.
However, he's also associated with a feud with Drake, which might give him reasons to make some public statements, even if they're not political. Another point is the legal concerns his track "Not Like Us." There's a character assassination match from Drake, so perhaps he's careful about consisting of any controversial tunes in the efficiency. But because he won the Grammys for that track, he might still want to perform it, even if it's uncertain.
Considering Trump is attending this Super Bowl, which is a prominent event, Lamar might feel compelled to make a statement. However, the NFL tends to prevent political statements during the halftime program, so there's a threat that such content may be limited or softened.
On the other hand, Lamar has a track record of making strong carry on huge phases. He's the very first solo rap act to heading the halftime program, which may provide him more innovative freedom. Plus, his previous habits recommends he's not shy about expressing his opinions, even in public performances.
But I also remember reading that Lamar revealed tiredness about slamming Trump, comparing it to beating a dead horse. That might suggest he's less motivated to raise Trump this time around, particularly if he's concentrating on his feud with Drake. In summary, weighing all factors-past behavior, existing shifts in focus, legal concerns, and the event's context-the likelihood seems to be reasonably high, maybe around 65%.
Will Andy Reid eat a cheeseburger on screen after the incredibly bowl?
AI Final Prediction: 25% possibility
Lets be truthful, Andy Reid loves cheeseburgers. And who does not? Will the truth that our AI has never ever tasted the juicy deliciousness of a fresh hamburger taint its forecast? Appears like theres rather of a chance that if the chiefs taste success, Andy will taste Angus Beef.
From the articles, I see that Terry Bradshaw made a joke about Andy Reid consuming a cheeseburger throughout a Super Bowl celebration. Bradshaw later said sorry for the joke, stating he didn't indicate to cause offense which he really discovered it humorous himself. Reid seemed to take it in stride, which might indicate he's the type to laugh it off rather than getting upset.
Looking at the posts, it discusses that Andy Reid is a food lover and loves cheeseburgers. There's a post particularly about his love for food, which suggests that he's an individual who delights in consuming, especially with his group. So, if there were strategies to commemorate after the Super Bowl, it's possible he would partake in a cheeseburger, especially if the scenario is on screen for a celebration.
Will the opening coin toss in the Super Bowl be tails?
AI Final Prediction: 50% possibility
"Tails never ever fails?" You can't deceive the devices !! Betters leading up to the superbowl have actually been anticipating the coin toss and 53% are predicting heads due to it being heads 3 of the last 4 very bowls. Potentially financially rewarding? Maybe. Statistically incongruent? Certainly. Luckily our AI can't be tricked and believes anything can happen when that coin goes in the air.
Okay, chessdatabase.science so I'm attempting to figure out the likelihood that the opening coin toss in the Super Bowl will be tails. I know that a coin toss is expected to be 50/50, however there's some historical information that might influence this prediction.
First, I review the short articles provided. They all point out the historic data of Super Bowl coin tosses. It looks like tails has actually shown up more frequently than heads historically. Specifically, in 58 Super Bowls, tails has actually been the result 30 times, which has to do with 52%, while heads has actually been 28 times, which is about 48%. So, based simply on history, tails has a minor edge, but it's not a big distinction.
However, I keep in mind that the outcome of a coin toss is usually thought about random. The slight historical edge for tails might be due to possibility. But when making forecasts, sometimes people weigh historic data even if it's not statistically significant. So, I ought to think about whether this historical bias should influence the likelihood.
After thinking of it, I choose that while the historic information reveals a minor choice for tails, it's not statistically substantial enough to move the likelihood away from 0.5. So, I'll go with 0.5 as the probability, acknowledging that the small historic edge exists however doesn't override the truth that each toss is an independent 50/50 event.
Will the referees cheat to assist the Chiefs win the Super Bowl?
AI Final Prediction: 1% possibility
We get it, you think the refs like Patrick Mahomes and are gon na help him win. If I wasn't born and raised in Kansas City (I promise we didn't inject pro-Kansas City training data) I would most likely think the very same. BUT, its authorities now since our AI says the chances are just 1% (hmmmm ... 1% is still kind of high when it pertains to fraud on a national scale). Looks like the Chiefs will have to win fair and square!
AI Reasoning:
Okay, so I'm trying to figure out the likelihood that the referees will cheat to assist the Chiefs win the Super Bowl. Hmm, that's a pretty serious accusation. Let me break this down. First, timeoftheworld.date I'm seeing a lot of articles that speak about conspiracy theories recommending referees are biased towards the Chiefs. People are pointing to some doubtful contact current video games, especially the AFC Championship Game. That does appear to trigger some uncertainty. I can see why fans might get irritated when their group loses due to what they perceive as bad officiating.
But then I check out that the NFL Referees Association and the Commissioner, Roger Goodell, have both dismissed these claims as "outrageous" and "ludicrous." They state there's no proof of organized bias. That's a strong statement from individuals in charge. If they're rejecting it, it may imply there's no genuine basis or they would have resolved it differently if there was some truth to it.
Looking at the posts, a number of sources like [1], [5], [6], [7], [8], and [9] all report that the officials are against these claims, and some even called them insulting. They also pointed out that statistical analysis does not show any pattern of favoritism towards the Chiefs. For example, Mike Pereira from FOX said data shows the Chiefs have been punished more given that 2022. That's fascinating because if they were getting special treatment, you might anticipate fewer charges, right?
...
So, putting all of it together, the probability that referees will cheat to assist the Chiefs win the Super Bowl is probably very low. Maybe not zero because you can't dismiss every possibility, but very not likely.
Summary
There you have it everyone, is it even worth seeing the video game still? I guess I'll need to wait and see how the video game ends up before we release this upon the stock exchange. Fingers crossed for a great game! And hey, if it ends up our AI was wrong about everything, at least it can gain from this.
